Former eBay executive Meg Whitman holds a commanding
lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the
June 8 Republican gubernatorial primary. In the GOP Senate
primary, former HP President Carly Fiorina has pulled
away from rival Tom Campbell, according to the latest
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll.
Whitman, a billionaire, led Poizner 48.4 percent to 19.9 percent, while Fiorina led Campbell 36.5 percent to 22 percent. When those who are “leaning toward” either candidate are included, Whitman leads Poizner
by 54.4 percent to 24 percent, while Fiorina leads Campbell by 40 percent to 24.5 percent. Republican Senate contender Chuck DeVore
remained in a distant third with 12 points.
"Whitman has this sewn up. It's done. She's going to
really embarrass Steve Poizner," said pollster Adam
The survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted by
telephone statewide from May 30 through June 1. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7 percent. The entire poll, conducted by Republican
Probolsky in consultation with Democratic pollster
Ben Tulchin, can be viewed here.
A tracking poll is slightly different than a full polling
survey. A track is meant more to be a snapshot in time,
and try to capture momentum and trends in a race. "The
main point of a track is to monitor movement and impact
of a paid media campaign," said Tulchin. Tulchin said
these numbers clearly show that Whitman and Fiorina's
poltiical ads have sealed the deal with Republican
The Senate side reflects a dramatic shift toward Fiorina
over the past six weeks. An April 24 Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research Poll showed Campbell with 31-17 point lead over Fiorina, and DeVore at 14 percent.
The change in the Senate campaign reflects the heavier
spending by Fiorina.
Probolsky noted that two of the three survey days were
over the Memorial Day weekend. But he did not expect
that to alter the final results dramatically. “I'm sure there's some variations based upon the holiday
weekend. If someone was winning by a half a point,
I'd say we'd have to compensate for it and make sure
we're on track. But these are big numbers. Both Whitman
and Fiorina are winning big. The weekend is not going
to make a difference here,” he said.
"These races are played out," Tulchin.
Tulchin, who also works as a pollster for Democratic
lieutenant governor hopeful Gavin Newsom, said more
than 25% of those voting in this month's primary have already
cast their ballots.